Flashman Letters

Russell Napier Discusses the Failure of QE2 and the Coming QE3 - click to listen

Napier discusses the failure of QE2 and the coming of QE3. He also speaks with Jim about the danger in equity and bond markets and how Asian currencies may provide a short term safe haven. Napier’s longer term S&P 500 target is 400.

via www.financialsense.com

Funny.... Vogue's March Hagiography of Madame al Assad did not mention this....Witness: Shattered humanity inside Syria's security apparatus

AMMAN (Reuters) – The young man was dangling upside down, white, foaming saliva dripping from his mouth. His groans sounded more bestial than human.

via news.yahoo.com

World's best Tetris player - I even suck at wasting time - ff to 3 mins and watch from there

via kottke.org

This time is the same: Do banks learn from crises? Short answer: No

Given our main result, some of the events subsequent to 1998 that have been argued to have played a key role in the performance of banks during the financial crisis have to be put in perspective. The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (GLBA) was signed into law in November 1999. GLBA repealed central provisions of the Glass-Steagall Act that restricted bank holding companies from affiliating with securities firms and insurance companies. The strong return predictability of 1998 crisis returns for the financial crisis of 2007/2008 suggests that part of the performance of banks during the recent crisis can be attributed to factors that already existed before the enactment of GLBA or other regulatory decisions such as the Commodities Futures Modernisation Act or the SEC’s amendments to the broker-dealer net capital rule.

Overall, our results show that financial institutions that are negatively affected in a crisis do not appear to subsequently alter the business model or to become more cautious regarding their risk culture. Consequently, the performance in one crisis has strong predictive power for a crisis which starts almost a decade later.

via www.voxeu.org

Deep Thoughts From Howard Marks On "How Quickly They Forget" - click to link- always a good read

How Quickly They Forget 05-25-11

via www.zerohedge.com

Congressmen Have the Buffet Touch - This is probably not a good thing

Four university researchers examined 16,000 common stock transactions made by approximately 300 House representatives from 1985 to 2001, and found what they call "significant positive abnormal returns," with portfolios based on congressional trades beating the market by about 6 percent annually.
...
A study of senators by the same team of researchers five years ago found members of the higher chamber even better at beating the market -- outperforming it by about 10 percent, an amount the academics said was "both economically large and statistically significant."

via falkenblog.blogspot.com

Caplan on Parenting - For Will the Thrill - Click to link

Bryan Caplan of George Mason University and EconLog talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the ideas in Caplan's new book, Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids. Caplan argues that parents spend too much time trying to influence how their kids will turn out as adults. Using research on twins and adopted children, Caplan argues that nature dominates nurture and that parents have little lasting influence on many aspects of their children's lives. He concludes that parents should spend less time and energy trying to influence their children. If parenting takes less time, then have more kids, says Caplan. The conversation concludes with a discussion of whether a larger population is bad for the planet.

via www.econtalk.org

Historian sees S&P fall to 400 - Russell Napier - Yikes

MARKETS

Long View: Historian sees S&P fall to 400

May 16 2011  Stock market historian and CLSA consultant Russell Napier discusses with head of Lex John Authers his warning that the real bear market in the S&P has yet to come and could push the US equities index down to 400, plus he explains how emerging markets could trigger a leap in US Treasury yields.  (11m 16sec)

Credits:
Produced by Josh de la Mare. Filmed by Conrad Suckling

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via video.ft.com

Space Case- A great review of Star Wars 1- 6

The prize for the least speakable burst of dialogue has, over half a dozen helpings of “Star Wars,” grown into a fiercely contested tradition, but for once the winning entry is clear, shared between Anakin and Padmé for their exchange of endearments at home:

“You’re so beautiful.”
“That’s only because I’m so in love.”
“No, it’s because I’m so in love with you.”

For a moment, it looks as if they might bat this one back and forth forever, like a baseline rally on a clay court.

via www.newyorker.com

Is Italy Not Spain The Real Elephant In The Euro Room? There are two elephants

It shouldn’t have surprised, but I’m sure it did, since the financial markets have only been thinking of how comparatively low the Italian deficit has been since the start of the crisis, rather than worrying their heads off about how a country with such a low growth rate and such a high pending elderly dependency ratio is ever going to pay down the already accumulated debt. Italy’s debt to GDP ratio is currently just short of 120%, while the population median age is 45, so lets just say Italy is Japan without the current account surplus.

Now were the quarterly GDP growth rate not to accelerate beyond the 0.1% expansion achieved in the first three months of this year, then even the current IMF forecast for modest 1% GDP growth in 2011 would start looking very optimistic. And if the country now slips back into recession (certainly not excluded) then the under-performance would be much greater.

via fistfulofeuros.net