What explains the stark differences between the performance of the UK and US economies at present?
It is possible that some of the difference is due to the UK economy being more exposed to the Eurozone than the US economy. But this just highlights the different fiscal position currently being adopted by the respective national governments in each country.
My assessment is that the major difference between the two economies relates to the conduct of the government in each case. The UK government has been announcing its intention to impose harsh fiscal austerity on the national economy since the day it took office. The fact is that most of the spending cuts are still to come, which doesn’t augur well for 2012, the spending associated with the Olympic Games notwithstanding.
It is highly likely that the “announcement effect” by the government of its intention to harshly cut spending has further eroded confidence among households and business firms, already labouring under the deflationary burden of high unemployment.
By way of contrast, while there has been austerity rhetoric in the US, which is probably held back private spending, the unresolved nature of the current political impasse has not translated into any serious budget cuts to date. The current US regime is still talking job creation and growth, which is far removed from the rhetoric that emerges from the British government.
However, I do not want to suggest that the US government is demonstrating sound macroeconomic policy management. Rather that it hasn’t started to actively undermine private spending and overall economic growth in any major way.
Comments